Stats & Links: Bayern bonus

Maurice Separator February 22, 2017

After the past weekend one could frequently read two words that leave a sour taste in every Bayern fan’s mouth by now. Every media was reporting about the famous Bayern luck or the ominous Bayern bonus. Fueled by statements from Berlin’s players and officials, if nothing else.

The much-loved Twitter user @nobilor has created an interesting statistic. It shows the goal percentage in every minute of the game for FC Bayern in comparison to the rest of the league, whereby all seasons since 2000/2001 are included.

Distribution of goals scored. Comparing Bayern and the rest of the league.
(Analystics: Nobilor)

Two things become evident here: Bayern basically increase their goal threat consistently throughout the game. They also improve significantly in the last twenty minutes of each half. They score more goals there than the rest of the league. Since there are more goals scored in Bayern games, the total number of goals scored in the last minutes is higher than in games without Bayern.

Some might want to call that luck, but in general this speaks for the statistically proven class of Bayern to be able to shift into another gear towards the end of the game.Two possible reasons could be a developed mentality through years of experience – some MSR author prefers to talk about mentality monsters like Arjen Robben – and also the increasing fatigue of the opposition, who sacrificially try to keep Bayern away from their box for the whole game.

A statistic from Jannik Müller is from a similar kind. He has compared the number of shots on target of all Bundesliga teams from minute 0 to 75 to the shots on target in the last fifteen minutes from this season.

Comparison of shots taken in the first 75 minutes and the final 15 minutes.
(Analytics: Jannick Müller)

For nearly all teams the number of shots on target is increasing. This seems to support the thesis of increasing fatigue, however, it could also be explained by teams taking higher risk in the dying minutes to possibly score the winner or somehow get the important equaliser, while neglecting their defending.

For FC Bayern, as well as Bayer Leverkusen, the number of shots taken rises significantly however – in fact, around 85 per cent. The quality of the shots on goal still remains good, too. In the first 75 minutes Bayern finish 62% of their attacks in the eighteen-yard area. This figure even goes up to 68% in the last few minutes. Someone who shoots on goal a lot more than other teams, precisely six shots on target more as the next best team in the last 15 minutes, is obviously going to score more goals.

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  1. Bayern’s aggressive football is no more this season, their tempo is too slow. They really need to improve on that if they want to go further. Their Best performance this season is not consistent and that’s what we really need to work on

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