Preview: Juventus Turin in the last sixteen

As Chris has pointed out in his interview, Italian teams are known to be compact and well organized defensively in general. And Juventus in particular have outstanding defensive qualities. The back three / back five in their 3-5-2 formation covers the entire width of the pitch very well and makes it extremely difficult for the opponent to get behind it. Allegri returned to this formation in the late fall, after he had previously fielded his team in a 4-4-2 formation. Since Chiellini will probably not be available for the first game, Allegri will have to rely more on a 4-4-2. While Juve allows 11.8 shots per game against them in the Champions League (2.8 more than the Bayern), the general shot quality of these opportunities is often not very high. Both teams conceded three goals in the competition. Only Paris has suffered fewer goals (2).

In midfield, the team of Allegri has a good mix of technically strong and physically robust players. Pogba and Marchisio are probably the main build-up players in the center. If you want to hurt Juventus, you have to win the crucial duels against them. Marchisio plays 51 passes per game in the Champions League, 48.5 Pogba. Only the two central defenders Bonucci (59.2) and Chiellini (56.3) have more. When Turin are in their build-up play, the connections between these players have to be interrupted as effectively as possible.

During Bayern’s possessions, it will be important to stretch the formation of the Italian record champions. This can only work, if Bayern gets pace in their game. Quick switches to the opposing sides and permanent dribbling attempts with speed are the keys to success. As strong as Juve’s center-backs are defensively, there are not the quickest. Munich has an ace upon their sleeves – or rather on their bench. Against Darmstadt Franck Ribery has already shown impressively that he can revive a game noticeably. The Frenchman synced with Arjen Robben throughout the final stages of the game, displaying a remarkable performance. It’s not hard to imagine that in Turin he could provide the decisive last few percent points as a sub, when the score is even.

In the center more than ever will depend on Thiago. The Spaniard moves very clever in tight spaces. Precisely this quality is needs when Allegri’s team closes down the center. Thiago needs to take care of the fast switches from one side to the other in the second and the final third, but he also is needed to play though balls though the gaps in Turin’s backline. Most certainly, Juve will allow significantly less chances than Bayern’s last opponent. Therefore, it also depends on whether Müller and Lewandowski can sustain their currently outstanding conversion rates. To create these opportunities Bayern have to succeed in always occupying the spaces that give them good options in the final third. Especially after the winter break there have been games in which the decision-making in this area of the pitch has not always been good. Bayern have to create connections, be in motion and then take the right decisions in order to crack this defense.

Bayern’s own defense will face their biggest challenges especially after dead ball situations and crosses. Besides a good counterattack prevention, which one actually needs in every game when your backline pushes as far up as Bayern’s, these situations must be avoided from the beginning. Crosses should be prevented and even unnecessary fouls around the own penalty area are needed less than ever. The heading abilities of Mandzukic, who will probably be fit for the game just in time, should be well known in Munich and to Pep Guardiola. Even if the Croatian should not play, Morata also has his qualities in this area. Because not everything can be avoided over the length of a game, Bayern will need a bit of luck and Manuel Neuer is needed in top form. But also on the ground there will be key duels. Dybala has a good run and will challenge Munich’s defense will his dynamics. Kimmich or Alaba will probably have to face him. With Lichtsteiner Turin has a player on their wings who knows how to cross the ball and who isn’t necessarily slow. Bernat will have to reach his performance peak, to prevent his runs. On the other side Evra will probably start the game, who can also bring in good crosses, but who is a bit slower than his Swiss counterpart. On a normal day Lahm should not have serious problems with the Frenchman. It will be important anyway, to constantly be very concentrated in possession and to keep the ball circulation going to minimize these key duels.

All in all, Bayern can expect a Juve team that possesses all the qualities to hit them where it hurts. Nevertheless, the Italians have their weaknesses as well, which Bayern have to attack constantly. Especially without their injured defenders it will be a big challenge for Pep Guardiola’s team, but with a concentrated performance a good result for the German record champions can be reached.

Statistics

The last five games against Juventus

• Juventus 0-2 Bayern Munich (Champions League second leg quarter-finals 2012/13)
• Bayern Munich 2-0 Juventus (Champions League first leg quarterfinals 2012/13)
• Juventus 1-4 Bayern Munich (Champions League, group stage 2009/10)
• Bayern Munich 0-0 Juventus (Champions League, group stage 2009/10)
• Juventus 2-1 Bayern Munich (Champions League, group stage 2005/06)

Overall

• Hard to believe, but both sides met only eight times. FC Bayern got four wins and a draw. Three times Juve won.
• Since the 2004/05 season Juventus has lost only two of 45 home games in UEFA club competition., both against Bayern. The home record against German teams: 14 wins – 3 draws – 5 losses.
• The away record of Bayern against Italian teams is negative with seven wins, three draws and nine defeats.

Series

• Juventus are unbeaten in their last 16 home games in UEFA competitions. Their last defeat came against Bayern in April 2013, followed by 10 wins and 6 draws.
• Bayern has a small series against Juve. For four games they are undefeated and the last three, they managed to win. The last win of the Italians against Bayern was in November of 2005.
• Juventus had a series of 15 consecutive wins in the league. In Bologna this series was ended on Friday, but it was still a club record.
• Juve have not conceded a goal in nine official matches in a row and lost only one of their last 22 matches.
• Bayern won nine of their last ten games. The last competitive match was lost in Gladbach.
• Lewandowski scored nine goals in just six games in 2016. Müller and Lewandowski have together scored all ten league goals of Bayern this year.

Funfacts

• Coman and Vidal at Bayern, and Mandzukic at Juventus, will each face their former clubs.
• In four games for VfL Wolfsburg Mandzukic did not manag to score a single goal against Bayern.
• Juventus has already played two matches against a German team this season and hasn’t won either. In Gladbach the played 1-1 and at home a 0-0.

Five “bold predictions” for the first leg

1. Bavaria scores at least twice.
2. Bayern will win.
3. Mandzukic won’t score. Having Sandro Wagner score against his former club was hard enough.
4. Bayern will concede a goal.
5. Lewandoswki will score one of the important away goals.