Preview: Borussia Dortmund – FC Bayern München

Pep Guardiola of course wants to change that, but there are certainly more grateful tasks than defending or even expanding a lead in Dortmund. With Thomas Tuchel again some things changed this season. As Luca already analyzed for us, they have their system strongly focused on playing the ball instead of against it. Klopp’s counter attacks were not forgotten. BVB has scored eight counter attack goals already and is in second place behind rivals Schalke 04 in that statistic.

Comparing Dortmund’s last season to the current Tuchel team, the differences are evident in the statistics. Under Klopp they played 456 passes per game, which have increased with the new coach to 575. Only Bayern has played more (680) in the league. Moreover, the ball possession of 53.3% under Klopp, increased to 60.4%. The passing accuracy of 83.4% is significantly better than the 76.7% the previous season. Especially the latter is a feature that distinguishes the new BVB. Meanwhile they play patient football and wait for the gaps in the opposing lineup. This helps Dortmund especially against smaller opponents that are parking the bus. The biggest problem with Jürgen Klopp was finding solutions against these teams.

Nevertheless – and this is an important point for the game at the weekend – the BVB is also able to leave the game to the opponent and to be wait. The qualities in the “Umschaltspiel” have not been forgotten and that makes them an uncomfortable opponent for Bayern. Besides the four key players analyzed by Luca, BVB also has players like Marco Reus, or Shinji Kagawa that can give any opponent a headache on a good day. Dortmund shoots 15.4 times on the goal of your opponent, five shots less than Bayern (20.4). However, BVB scored 59 goals, the same number as Bayern. Their converstion rate of 22.1% is the second best in the league, only Gladbach is better (22.2%). Bayern has clear potential for improvement (17.3%). Especially when Müller and Lewandowski don’t score, there are few players that threaten the opponents goal.

Dortmund has become more stable in defense. Meanwhile they allow only eight shots per game, which is just 1.2 more than Munich. In the last ten matches they collected seven clean sheets, while Bayern finished only five of the last ten games without conceding a goal. Borussia Dortmund also has a very strong central defense. Hummels won 72% of his challenges, which is the best in the league and Sokratis with 68% is not far behind. However, Sokratis will not play against Bayern, which is an opportunity for the Reds. The weaknesses in the defense were covered up with the adapted system that Luca told us about, but there were also repeatedly scenes where you have seen the defense of BVB under pressure in recent weeks. The isolation of a full-back, and the constant pressure on the second center back alongside Hummels are ways win the ball against this team. Subotic and Bender are the candidates for the starting XI and both have their deficiencies in the build-up game. Moreover, it is important for Bayern to complicate BVB’s transition from the second to the final thid. Gündogan and Weigl are players that have to be stopped in the the middle. If you manage to block the connections from Gundogan to Mkhitaryan, Aubameyang and Reus the offensive play of the BVB is significantly tougher.

In their own possession FC Bayern will have to pay particular attention to themselves. In recent weeks, inaccuracies piled up in the last third, which are will be punished more severely by Dortmund, as against any other previous opponents. Should there be turnovers, the counter pressing needs access immediately, otherwise the “Umschaltspiel” of Dortmund can not be prevented. Can Bayern get a similar performance in this area as in Turin, it is very hard for Dortmund to create relief attacks. Guardiola and Tuchel are perhaps the best coaches in the league when it comes to adapting to the enemy and to prepare a match plan, making this encounter again unpredictable and exciting. All in all, we expect a very interesting game that will be decided not only on the court, but also in the dugouts.

Statistics for the game

The last five games against the BVB

• Bayern Munich 5-1 Borussia Dortmund (Bundesliga 8th match day 2015/16)
• Bayern Munich 1-3 after penalites Borussia Dortmund (DFB Cup, semi-finals 2014/15)
• Borussia Dortmund 0-1 Bayern Munich (Bundesliga, 27th match day 2014/15)
• Bayern Munich 2-1 Borussia Dortmund (Bundesliga, 10th matchday 2014/15)
• Borussia Dortmund 0-2 after extra time FC Bayern München (DFB Cup final 2013/14)

Overall

• 110 games between these teams. 51 times Bayern won , 28 duels BVB won and already 31 times a draw.
• With 3.1 goals per match this match is also a high-scoring game. 203 goals were scored by Bayern, 138 by BVB 138.
• Both teams dominated the league not only in this season. Of the last 22 championships 18 went to Munich or Dortmund.

Funfacts

• Bayern are the strongest team at home, but has already played one home game more than BVB with only two points less. If Dortmund wins, they take take the lead in this statistic. The last BVB defeat at home was against Bayern on April 4th 2015 (0-1).
• In 2016, BVB has not lost a competitive game. There were nine wins and a draw against Hertha BSC.
• In 45 of 52 Bundesliga seasons BVB would have been league leaders, which underlines the outstanding performance of both teams.
• Since the defeat in the first leg at the Allianz Arena, Dortmund collected two points more than Bayern.
• It is of course also the duel between the two sharp shootes. Aubameyang scored 22 times, Lewandowski scored 23 goals. The BVB striker always scored at least once in the last eleven Bundesliga home games. Together they combine for 45 goals. The last time the two leading sharp shootes of the league combined for 45 goals at this time, was in 1973-74. (Gerd Müller and Jupp Heynckes).
• Lewandowski (23) and Müller (17) so far scored together 40 goals in the league. The best BVB duo is Aubameyang (22) and Mkhitaryan or Reus (9) and the combine for 31 goals.
• Mkhitaryan along with Raphael has the most assists in the league. Both were able to provide ten assists. Douglas Costa follows them with nine assists.
• Both teams scored 59 goals so far, which is the best in the league and is followed by Gladbach (49) and Wolfsburg (36).
• Guardiola’s record in the second half of the seasons could again be an issue. Last season his team collected only 12 of the possible 30 points against the teams placed two to six at the end. In the first half of the season the FC Bayern collected 11 out of 15 possible points, while only collecting 1 of the remaining 15 points. A draw against Leverkusen, and the defeat to Mainz, who are currently ranked on 5, keep this issue still open.

Five “bold predictions”

1. Bayern don’t score more than two goals.
2. Borussia Dortmund will manage at least one goal.
3. David Alaba will not start in central defense, but as a full-back.
4. Traditions must be maintained and, therefore, an ex-BVB player will score for Bayern .
5. I have to meet my reputation as an optimist: Bayern will win this match

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